Thursday, November 7, 2013

Tesla - Is This A Tech Company or a Car Company?

I subscribe to Kevin Rose's Twitter feed, and he said something that caught my eye. You might ask "who the hell is Kevin Rose", but he's kind of a god in tech circles. I could list his resume here, but it's easier to link to his Wikipedia entry.

 This got me to thinking about a hunch I had back in 1982 about Apple. I figured it was a good buy, based on nothing more than wanting one real bad.

Flash forward to today, forgetting about their near bankruptcy, and $100 worth of their stock would now trade at about $141,728. This gives a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.36%.

The average Vancouver home price in 1980 was $86,000. Now it's about $680,000. CAGR is 4.93%. And everyone considers their home as their best single investment.

So I'm considering investing a small amount in Tesla - the electric car company.

They're all over the financial news because they announced quarterly earnings this week, and the results didn't meet expectations.

The company is almost "across the board" being shorted, and most analysts say that the high stock price is not maintainable.

My own Financial Advisor tells me that to get Tesla's current valuations, they'd have to produce as many cars as BMW. Their target "realistic" stock price is about $55.

And that's the point.

Is Tesla a car company, or a tech company? Or a new hybrid of the two?

I think that electric cars done right (as Tesla is clearly doing) could be just as much a game changer as Apple was (is?). They're not a computer company any more. They're a lifestyle tech company - and introduced a whole new category to us. Tesla is doing the same.

So is listening to analysts getting me anything other than old world thinking? Or do I listen to the tech community, which is putting Tesla on a pedestal?

I haven't made up my mind yet.

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